A Grim Statistical History
Teams that go up 3-0 in a best-of-seven Stanley Cup Final have historically triumphed in 27 of 28 series. The lone exception was in 1942, when the Toronto Maple Leafs mounted an incredible rally to defeat the Detroit Red Wings. Out of these 28 series, 20 ended in sweeps.
The Panthers are looking to sweep the Stanley Cup Final for the first time since the Red Wings dispatched the Washington Capitals in four games in 1998. Even if the Oilers manage to extend the series by winning Game 4, history is overwhelmingly against them. Twenty-five of those 28 series have ended in no more than five games. Despite the daunting odds, the Oilers still have faith.
Oilers' Current Struggles
The Oilers are now 0-5-0 against the Panthers this season. Edmonton made a push in the third period on Thursday, netting goals from Philip Broberg and Ryan McLeod to narrow Florida's lead to 4-3. However, the critical takeaway from Game 3 was that the Oilers were down 4-1 entering the third period—on home ice in a must-win game against a team with a plus-15 goal differential in the final frame during the postseason.
The Oilers hemorrhaged three goals in an embarrassing 6:19 stretch in the second period, which proved to be their undoing. After a Warren Foegele breakaway goal tied the game at 1-all, Skinner’s turnover allowed forward Eetu Luostarinen to find Vladimir Tarasenko, making it 2-1 and deflating the crowd at 9:12.
The momentum swung further in Florida’s favor, as solid forechecking by Matthew Tkachuk led to a Darnell Nurse turnover and a goal by Sam Bennett, his seventh of the playoffs, at 13:57. Aleksander Barkov capped the scoring for the Panthers at 15:31, converting a 2-on-1 chance that the Oilers allowed to start deep inside their attacking zone.
The Stars Fail to Shine
The mistakes piled up for Edmonton, but the goals for their star players did not. While Foegele, Broberg, McLeod, and Mattias Ekholm have found the back of the net, the Oilers’ top five postseason scorers—Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, and defenseman Evan Bouchard—remain goalless in the finals. These five players also anchor Edmonton's power play, which has been ineffective this series against a Florida penalty kill that is a perfect 10-for-10.
Edmonton's power play entered the series converting over 37% of its opportunities, the best in the postseason. McDavid has contributed with assists on three of Edmonton's four goals in the series. He is on pace to become just the second player since 1967-68 to earn a point on at least half of his team’s postseason goals, a feat last achieved by Wayne Gretzky for the Oilers in 1988. Nevertheless, the rest of the star players have yet to score a point in the Stanley Cup Final.
Taking Responsibility
"It’s very frustrating, of course. I pride myself on being good in the playoffs and playing well, and I just can't seem to get anything going. So, yeah, I obviously have to look in the mirror and try to be better," said Draisaitl.
"We shot ourselves in the foot a little bit today. Made some individual and collective mistakes that they immediately took advantage of," Draisaitl added.
"It is disappointing being down 3-0. We've got to let that reality sink in. I'm not too sure what the stats are on coming back in it, but if anyone can do it, it’s the Oil," stated Stuart Skinner.
Coach Kris Knoblauch echoed sentiments of optimism and belief. "I think we've shown that we can beat this team. I think there’s a lot of belief in that. It's not like we're getting outplayed and we're just saying, '[That team’s] better than us.' We can string together a lot of wins. We've shown it. I don’t think there’s any doubt in our room," Knoblauch explained.
He added, "There's frustration that we’re down, but there's a difference between frustration and quitting. There’s absolutely no quit. There’s a belief that we can do this, so we just need to keep pushing."
"After they got that second one, they just kind of got on a roll. We let them take that momentum and stride with it. They got two more quick ones. Just kind of silly mistakes that don't need to happen," reflected Skinner.
Draisaitl concluded with a hopeful resolve: "We’re a good offensive team. They’re doing a good job, but we’re still getting our looks. It’s just when you’re chasing the game for a big chunk of the night, it’s hard to come back. It’s a steep hill right now, obviously. No choice but to take it one game at a time. Try and get one win in Game 4 and go from there."