With the 2024 NBA season on the horizon, anticipation is building around this year’s Rookie of the Year race. Historically, the award has frequently gone to the highest-scoring rookie, a trend that may continue despite the perceived challenges faced by this year’s draft class.
Historical Trends and Current Contenders
Examining the past 10 years, data shows that over half the recipients of the Rookie of the Year award have been the top scorers among their peers. Additionally, a significant portion of the past 16 winners were selected as No. 1 overall picks, suggesting a strong correlation between draft position and immediate NBA success. However, winning the award from a lower draft position isn't unprecedented, with notable names like Damian Lillard and Malcolm Brogdon exemplifying that path.
Interestingly, the last two decades have seen a scarcity of big men winning the coveted award. Since 2003, only four centers or power forwards—Emeka Okafor, Blake Griffin, Karl-Anthony Towns, and the recent victor Victor Wembanyama—have captured the title. This year’s draft class might not shift that paradigm dramatically, given the early outlook.
Challenges in the 2024 Draft Class
The 2024 draft class is widely regarded as one of the least promising in recent memory. The top two picks are considered developmental projects who eschew the guard position, a critical role often associated with quick NBA readiness and impact.
Reed Sheppard, the highest-picked guard, enters a challenging situation in Houston’s crowded backcourt. The Rockets "badly need his shooting," but the competition he faces could hinder his ability to stand out.
Stephon Castle and Ron Holland both have shooting woes adding complexity to their Rookie of the Year candidacies. Castle's 26.7% accuracy from beyond the arc at UConn and Holland's even more troubling 23.9% 3-point shooting in the G-League raise doubts about their scoring proficiency translating to the NBA.
Alex Sarr faces an uphill battle due to his poor shooting performance in the Summer League, where he managed just a 19.1% field goal percentage. Additionally, Washington might not be the best environment for him as "playing for Washington kills Sarr’s candidacy because he has nobody to set him up," implying difficulties in finding his rhythm in an unstructured team setup.
Team Situations Impacting Rookie Development
Zach Edey's prospects provide a specific point of optimism. Projected to start for the Memphis Grizzlies, Edey is expected to model his game on Jonas Valanciunas, benefitting from a more defined role and clearer expectations.
Rob Dillingham, drafted by the Timberwolves as a future replacement for Mike Conley, also finds himself in a nurturing environment, albeit with a timeline dependent on Conley's tenure.
Conversely, other draftees face more formidable obstacles. Donovan Clingan, for example, is significantly behind Deandre Ayton and Robert Williams III in Portland’s pecking order. Jalen Johnson and Dyson Daniels, competing with rookie Zaccharie Risacher at forward, face similar challenges on a team led by Trae Young.
In Utah, Isaiah Collier will struggle for playing time with Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson ahead of him on the depth chart. Dalton Knecht’s opportunities on the Lakers are similarly restricted by the presence of Austin Reaves and D'Angelo Russell.
Outlook for the Season
As the new season nears, it’s clear that some rookies have potential paths to Rookie of the Year contention while others face daunting obstacles. Brandin Podziemski and Jaime Jaquez Jr., who garnered attention but fell short of serious Rookie of the Year consideration last season, exemplify the challenges that come with rising through competitive and talent-packed lineups.
Ultimately, while this year's draft class may not boast a clear frontrunner, the narratives and development arcs of these rookies will be compelling to watch. Sometimes, the most unexpected contenders rise to the occasion, particularly as teams and players find their stride throughout the season.📷Loading…