At 7:10 PM ET, the San Diego Padres and Cleveland Guardians clash in an interleague battle at Progressive Field. The Guardians, with a record of 58-37, hold a firm grip on the AL Central lead while the Padres, sitting at 50-49, trail in 3rd place in the NL West.
Pitching Duel: Waldron vs. Bibee
Matt Waldron will take the mound for the Padres. Over 19 starts this season, Waldron has recorded a 5-8 record and a respectable 3.71 ERA. His control has been solid with a WHIP of 1.17, and opposing batters have only managed a .225 average against him. However, his last outing on July 12th saw him give up four earned runs, indicating potential vulnerabilities.
Countering Waldron is Tanner Bibee of the Guardians, boasting a 7-4 record and a 3.77 ERA in his 19 starts. Sporting an impressive WHIP of 1.12, Bibee has delivered seven quality starts and averages 10.54 strikeouts per nine innings, amassing 123 total strikeouts this season. Like Waldron, Bibee also allowed four earned runs in his last game against the Tigers, breaking a streak of two consecutive wins.
Teams' Current Form
The Padres are coming off a 6-3 loss to the Atlanta Braves, a game in which Randy Vasquez started and took the loss, allowing four runs on four hits over five innings. The bullpen later gave up an additional two runs in the eighth inning. With an overall season record of 50-49, the Padres now sit seven games behind the Dodgers in the NL West. Their divisional record of 15-17 and road record of 24-21 highlight a team that struggles for consistency, having lost two of their last three games against the Braves and their last two games as underdogs. They possess a 21-20 record overall when labeled as underdogs.
In contrast, the Guardians have fared poorly in their last five home games, collecting a 1-4 record. Their past ten games have been a mixed bag too, with a 4-6 record. They recently concluded a series against the Rays with a 2-0 loss, emblematic of their struggles at the plate. During the last game against the Rays, Ben Lively struck out the side in the first inning but couldn't maintain the momentum, allowing two runs in the third.
Offensive Standouts
Offensively, the Guardians hold a .243 team batting average, ranking 11th in MLB, and score an average of 4.8 runs per game. Their power is notable, with the 10th most home runs in the league. José Ramírez and Josh Naylor have been particularly impactful; Ramírez is second in the league with 77 RBIs and has 23 home runs, maintaining a batting average of .271. Naylor has driven in 70 runs as well.
The Padres' Jurickson Profar and Fernando Tatis Jr. lead their team with 14 home runs each, with Profar's 59 RBIs pacing the team. Profar's recent form is noteworthy, going 7/22 in his last seven games, while Manny Machado rides a three-game hitting streak. Machado's batting average is .231 over the past week, signaling a possible improvement in form.
Game Forecast
The over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs, with Cleveland games averaging 8.7 runs per game and Padres games averaging 8.9. Significantly, 58.6% of Padres games and 66.3% of Guardians games have gone over this line for the season.
As this closely contested matchup approaches, predictions lean towards a narrow victory for the Guardians, 6-5, with both teams expected to register nine hits each. Tanner Bibee is projected to have six strikeouts against Waldron's five, with Bibee anticipated to yield fewer earned runs.
With Bibee's strikeout prowess and the Guardians' offensive consistency, the home team holds a slight edge. Meanwhile, the Padres will look to capitalize on their road form and end their brief slump as underdogs.