In what promises to be an afternoon of gripping baseball, the Arizona Diamondbacks are set to take on the Chicago Cubs at the iconic Wrigley Field. The first pitch is scheduled for 2:20 PM ET, with the Diamondbacks entering as slight favorites on the money line at -106.
Pitchers' Duel
The Diamondbacks will send Ryne Nelson to the mound, a pitcher who is coming off a solid run of six straight starts without surrendering more than three earned runs. Nelson, holding a 6-6 record and a 4.99 ERA, has managed to keep his team competitive, even though his season WHIP stands at 1.42 and rivals are hitting .296 against him. Arizona will be hoping he can hold the line against a Cubs lineup that has been hot in recent games.
On the other side, the Cubs will counter with Justin Steele, who has enjoyed a noteworthy season despite a modest 2-3 record. Steele brings a commendable 2.71 ERA into today's game, with eight quality starts under his belt. His recent form has been impressive, pitching seven scoreless innings in his latest outing. Steele's home ERA is a reliable 3.16, a bit higher than his road ERA of 2.96, but still a testament to his consistent performance.
Teams' Current Form
The Diamondbacks have a decent record of 49-48 overall and are in the chasing position in the NL West, trailing the Dodgers by seven games. Despite a recent close loss to the Blue Jays, 8-7, after blowing a seven-run lead, Arizona has shown resilience, winning four of their last five away games.
The Cubs, holding a 47-51 record, find themselves fifth in the NL Central, 8.5 games behind the Brewers. However, their current form has been solid, with a 7-3 record in their last ten games. The home field has been a strength for the Cubs recently, winning four of their last five at Wrigley Field. Additionally, Chicago boasts a 9-5 record as home underdogs this season, suggesting they might have the edge even when not favored by the bookmakers.
Offensive Contributions
The Diamondbacks' offensive prowess is reflected in their average of five runs per game, the second-best mark in MLB. Christian Walker and Ketel Marte have been key contributors, racking up 22 and 19 homers respectively. Arizona's games have also been high-scoring affairs, averaging 9.8 runs per game, which might bode well for those betting on the over line of 7.5 runs for today’s match.
The Cubs, averaging 4.2 runs per game, will need their lineup to step up. Nico Hoerner has been exceptional, hitting .378 over his last nine games, and Christopher Morel has delivered power with three homers in the past eight games. If these players continue their hot streaks, the Cubs could challenge the Diamondbacks' pitching staff.
Predictions and Expectations
Today's matchup comes with several critical projections. Justin Steele is expected to lead with six strikeouts, countering Ryne Nelson's projected four. Steele’s potential to concede fewer runs than Nelson might be pivotal if the Cubs aim to hold down the explosive Diamondbacks’ lineup. Both teams are riding three-game over streaks, suggesting today's game could well exceed the 7.5 runs line, consistent with 84.5% of Diamondbacks and 67.3% of Cubs games surpassing this figure.
While the Diamondbacks are slight favorites, the Cubs' recent form and home-field advantage make this a tightly contested game. A narrow victory for the Diamondbacks is predicted, with a final score projection of 5-4. However, baseball's unpredictable nature ensures that fans are in for an exciting and potentially high-scoring affair at Wrigley Field.
With both teams exhibiting differing strengths — the Diamondbacks' higher scoring average against the Cubs' steady home performance — the outcome will likely hinge on the pivotal performances on the mound and at the plate. As the sun sets over Chicago, fans will be eagerly watching every pitch, hit, and play, anticipating another thrilling chapter in the 2023 MLB season.